Key Notes
- tinyBuild now forecasts $54–56 million in 2026 revenue and $7–8 million in adjusted EBITDA following strong second-half launches.
- Probably Stolen has passed one million copies sold, while ReStory and Graveyard Keeper 2 have each reached at least half a million.
- The revenue forecast implies approximately 52–58% growth against the company’s rounded 2025 continuing-operations total, based on our calculation.
tinyBuild has raised its 2026 outlook after a run of successful releases, led by Probably Stolen passing one million copies sold. The publisher now expects annual revenue of $54–56 million and adjusted EBITDA of $7–8 million, ahead of market expectations.
The November 12 trading update credits Probably Stolen, ReStory: Chill Electronics Repairs and Graveyard Keeper 2 with strengthening the second half. The new revenue range would put tinyBuild well ahead of last year, although it remains below the level the company reached in 2022.
Probably Stolen Moves Beyond Its Launch-Day Surge
| Game | Copies Sold | Peak Steam Players |
|---|---|---|
| Probably Stolen | More than 1 million | More than 180,000 |
| ReStory: Chill Electronics Repairs | 500,000 | More than 19,000 |
| Graveyard Keeper 2 | More than 500,000 | More than 60,000 |
We reported on Probably Stolen selling 200,000 copies within hours of its October 28 release. The new milestone shows that its early sales momentum continued beyond the opening rush. Sales count purchases over time; concurrent-player figures measure how many people were playing simultaneously.
Questing Goose Studio’s shopkeeping sim puts players behind a counter on a dystopian space station. Trading, crafting and assessing suspicious merchandise are part of the job, with rising rent and competing factions adding pressure. Its launch followed a playtest and demo campaign that had already attracted a substantial audience.
The other two hits approach management from different directions. Mandragora’s ReStory centers on restoring electronics in mid-2000s Tokyo. Lazy Bear Games’ Graveyard Keeper 2 mixes cemetery management, production automation, rebuilding a town and commanding an undead army.
CEO Alex Nichiporchik credited the free giveaway of the original Graveyard Keeper with expanding the sequel’s audience and described the promotion as a commercial success.
A Recovery From 2025, Below the 2022 Revenue High
tinyBuild’s audited 2025 results recorded $35.5 million in revenue from continuing operations, excluding the divested Red Cerberus business. Against that rounded figure, the new range implies growth of approximately 52–58%. That percentage is our calculation, rather than a growth rate supplied in the new update.
Last year had already brought an improvement: continuing revenue rose from $30.4 million in 2024, while adjusted EBITDA swung from a $6.1 million loss to a $5.6 million profit. Owned intellectual property accounted for about 86% of game and merchandise royalties, reflecting the company’s emphasis on franchises in which it has a direct ownership stake.
Even the upper end of this year’s forecast remains below the roughly $63.3 million in revenue reported in tinyBuild’s 2022 results. The group’s composition has changed since then, so that earlier total provides historical scale rather than a perfectly comparable business perimeter.
The $7–8 million earnings forecast is adjusted EBITDA, not net profit. tinyBuild’s stated calculation includes amortization of software development costs, a material expense for a games publisher. The figures remain forecasts for the year ending December 31; the final annual results will establish how much of the stronger launch performance reaches the accounts.
